Has Chicago solved their on-base problems?
By Bruce Miles
The eternal question in baseball always seems to be, “What about the pitching?”
The Cubs look well on their way to providing a satisfactory answer to that one. The question bugging this franchise the last few years — no matter who has been in charge — is, “Can anybody get on base?”
With spring training set to begin, we’ll take a look at the key issues facing new manager Joe Maddon and his coaching staff as they get set to welcome pitchers and catchers to Mesa, Arizona, on Thursday.
We’ll start with the offense.
The Cubs go into spring training with their fourth hitting coach in four years, Chicagoan John Mallee. Team president Theo Epstein likened the Cubs’ situation with their hitting coach to that of the fictional rock band Spinal Tap and its instability at the drummer position.
Mallee, one of the most respected hitting coaches in the business, could be the long-term answer for the Cubs.
Speaking of answers, the Cubs will have to come up with several. To wit:
Can they up the OBP?
The Cubs finished 13th in the 15-team National League last year in on-base percentage (.300). In the first two years of the regime led by Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer, they finished last in 2012 and 14th in 2013.
The 2008 division winners under GM Jim Hendry finished first in OBP, runs scored and wins. No coincidence there. Since then, it has been all downhill, and criticism of the inability to get on base certainly has not been off-base.
The Cubs made a key move in the right direction late in the off-season by trading with Houston for center fielder Dexter Fowler, who put up an OBP of .375 last year and has a lifetime on-base mark of .366.
First baseman Anthony Rizzo excelled in this area last year with an OBP of .386, fueled in part by 73 walks.
Fowler will likely lead off, and if he can set the table for Rizzo and others by getting on base at his usual rate, the offense should pick up.
What’s the deal on Baez?
Second baseman-shortstop Javier Baez has struggled at the start each time he has been promoted in pro ball.
Last year was no exception after he received his big-league call-up on Aug. 5. In 229 plate appearances, Baez struck out 95 times while putting up a line of .169/.227/.324. He also hit 9 home runs, some of them prodigious.
He opened the season at Class AAA Iowa and went .260/.323/.510 with 23 homers and 80 RBI in 104 games.
At January’s Cubs convention, Baez said he and Mallee had been working on timing issues. The Cubs were not going anywhere last year, so calling up Baez was the right move. That allowed him to see big-league pitching and perhaps to get those struggles out of the way.
Work already has begun on the adjustments needed for Baez to become a solid major-league hitter. Maddon said during the convention that Baez doesn’t have an opening-day spot guaranteed, so he will be one of the stories to watch in spring training.
When does Bryant come up?
The other young player to watch in camp is third baseman Kris Bryant, the consensus minor league player of the year in 2014. The Cubs likely will want to save a year on Bryant’s service time, so he looks ticketed to start the season at Iowa.
A good start there may get him to Chicago in late April.
Are Castro and Rizzo back?
If there’s one success one-and-done manager Rick Renteria can hang his cap on, it’s that he created the right environment for Rizzo and shortstop Starlin Castro to enjoy bounce-back seasons in 2014.
Not only did they bounce back, but each made the all-star team (third time for Castro, and first for Rizzo).
Castro missed almost the final full month of the season with an ankle sprain, but he put up a line of .292/.339/.438 with 14 home runs and 65 RBI. The 14 homers tied his career high, and he would have added a few more had he not been hurt. His OBP of .339 was a big jump from .284 in 2013.
Off-the-field issues dogged Castro the last two years, so moving his training base to Arizona this winter was a step in the right direction.
Rizzo was so confident of better things to come that he said on the final day of last season that the Cubs’ goal should be to win the NL Central. He doubled down on that over the winter. Rizzo went .286/.386/.527 with 32 home runs and 78 RBI, and he missed 18 games late in the year with a back problem.
The new edition of Baseball Prospectus might have put it best: “The Cubs’ lineup lacked many things entering the (2014) season, but two big holes — a consistent bat and a team leader — were filled by the end of the year by Rizzo … Despite being a particularly mature young man Rizzo never gravitated to being an outspoken clubhouse voice; in 2014, though, he realized the team needed him to rise to that task, and he excelled.”
Is there enough balance?
It appears so now.
In the off-season, the Cubs added a switch hitter in Fowler along with left-handed batters in catcher Miguel Montero and infielder Tommy La Stella, who has a good on-base track record in the minor leagues. He could fill a utility role.
Rizzo is the main force from the left side, and infielder-outfielder Arismendy Alcantara gives the Cubs another switch-hitting option.
Left-handed hitting outfielder Chris Coghlan was a pleasant surprise last year, going .283/.352/.452 with 9 homers. The Cubs have added right-handed hitting Chris Denorfia as a possible platoon partner for Coghlan.